Quebecers head to the polls Monday in a provincial election that could return a separatist party to government after eight years of Coalition Avenir Quebec rule. Polls place the Parti Quebecois, led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, at roughly 30 per cent support — near the level that could deliver the 64 seats needed for a majority in the 127-seat National Assembly.
Remarkably, the campaign has been dominated less by independence than by U.S. President Donald Trump. Quebec has been hit disproportionately hard by American tariffs on aluminum, steel and manufacturing, and the PQ has promised to hold no independence referendum while Trump is president, saying Quebecers can reflect more calmly once he is out of office. Only about 30 per cent of Quebecers back separation, down from a near-50 per cent peak in 1995.
Incumbent Premier Christine Frechette, who took over after Francois Legault's resignation, framed the vote as a choice about who can best confront Trump. Leger polling shows 77 per cent of voters want change, driven by high prices, a strained health system and tariff damage.
Polling stations are open from 9:30 a.m. to 8 p.m., with the first preliminary results expected between 8:30 and 9 p.m. A PQ win would largely reflect fatigue with the outgoing government rather than an endorsement of separation, analysts say.
