It is referendum day in Alberta. Voters across the province are casting ballots Monday on a set of constitutional questions, headlined by one asking whether the provincial government should begin the legal process toward a separation referendum.
The vote is non-binding and is not itself a vote on independence, which is why analysts say the margin matters more than the winner. Polling reported by CBC through the final weekend showed about 70% of voters opposed to separation, and Premier Danielle Smith — who opposes leaving Canada but called the vote — has said that if 'stay' wins, she will approve no second referendum.
That pledge cuts both ways. Separatist organizers, including Mitch Sylvestre of the Alberta Prosperity Project, have argued that a 'yes' share anywhere near 40% would become a bargaining figure in every later negotiation with Ottawa, pointing to Quebec's history, where a 49.4% 'yes' vote in 1995 reshaped federal politics for a generation. Prime Minister Mark Carney has asked Albertans for a 'decisive' result.
Ten questions appear on Monday's ballot in many communities, touching on issues beyond separation, and polls in places like Grande Prairie were set to open at 9 a.m. and close at 8 p.m. Elections Alberta has spent the past week cautioning voters about misinformation circulating online about advance-voting requirements.
The referendum arrives at an emotional moment for the province, one day after Albertans learned the names of the four Canadian Armed Forces members killed in the fire at CFB Wainwright. Results tonight will be read in Ottawa as closely as in Edmonton.
