Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has told CBC she will not call a second referendum if Albertans vote to remain in Canada in Monday's referendum - "not as long as I'm premier." But a CBC analysis published Friday argues the decision might not be hers to make, pointing to the citizen-initiative mechanisms and political pressure that could put the question back on the agenda regardless of her pledge.

Albertans vote Monday, Oct. 19, on 10 referendum questions. The pivotal one, Question 10, asks whether Alberta should remain in Canada or begin a legal process toward a binding separation referendum. It will be counted first, with results expected about 48 hours later.

The pledge has drawn skepticism, including from former deputy premier Thomas Lukaszuk, a prominent remain voice, while separatist organizers have pushed back against closing the door on another vote - a split that underlines how little Monday's result may settle.

A Leger poll conducted Oct. 2-4 found 70 per cent of Albertans would vote to remain, 22 per cent would choose to begin the process toward a separation referendum and 7 per cent were undecided. Advance voting is under way, with more than 450,000 early and mail ballots already cast, and Prime Minister Mark Carney rallied for national unity in Calgary on Thursday.