TORONTO — The Toronto mayoral race is being repriced in real time. Over the past three days, prediction markets have moved sharply against incumbent Olivia Chow, cutting her implied probability of winning the October 26 election from 88 per cent to 74 per cent on both Kalshi and Polymarket.
No single debate moment or scandal explains a 14-point move of that size. Analysts following the markets point instead to a slower trend traders had been slow to price in: Chow's approval rating slipped to 48 per cent from 51 per cent in a CityNews/Leger poll, and her lead over Brad Bradford narrowed to nine points in that survey, even as another poll of decided voters still put her advantage at 17 points.
The market is not calling the race a toss-up — at 74 per cent, Chow remains the heavy favourite — but the gap between 88 and 74 marks a shift in how the contest is being classified, from near-certainty to genuinely contestable with less than a week of campaigning left.
Turnout may decide it. Advance voting earlier this month drew more than 222,000 ballots, and both campaigns are now focused on the undecided voters who remain large enough in number to swing the result either way on election day.
