Toronto's mayoral race is a statistical tie heading into its final days. A new Liaison Strategies survey released Wednesday puts Brad Bradford at 49 per cent and Mayor Olivia Chow at 47 per cent among decided and leaning voters, with 3 per cent choosing someone else.
The poll of 1,000 Toronto residents, conducted October 18–19 by interactive voice response and weighted to the 2021 Census, carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points — meaning the two-point gap does not establish a clear lead for either campaign. It reverses a five-point Chow advantage in Liaison's previous survey: Bradford gained three points while Chow lost four.
The regional movement is striking. In North York, Chow led 50 to 46 in the last survey; Bradford now leads there 56 to 42. He also leads 63 to 35 in Etobicoke, while Chow retains a 55 to 41 advantage downtown and Scarborough is nearly even, 49 per cent for Chow and 48 per cent for Bradford.
"It is a much less comfortable race for the mayor than it was last week," said Liaison principal David Valentin, while cautioning that neither campaign can treat the numbers as a clear lead. A separate Nanos survey for CTV News and CP24, conducted October 15–18, likewise showed the race tightening, with Chow at 50 per cent and Bradford at 47 per cent among decided voters.
The two frontrunners meet this week in the CP24 'Toronto Decides' municipal debate, taking questions submitted by viewers on housing, affordability, transit, public safety and city finances — a televised clash both campaigns acknowledge could be consequential in a race this close.
