WASHINGTON — Democrats enter the final stretch of the midterm campaign with a 10-point advantage over Republicans in voters' choice for their own congressional district, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS — the party's largest lead in CNN polling since just before the 2020 election.
The poll finds Democrats ahead 49 per cent to 39 per cent among registered voters nationally. More than three-quarters of voters say this election is their chance to change things up in Washington, President Donald Trump's approval rating stands at a record low of 32 per cent, and voters express broad dissatisfaction with both the economy and the direction of the country nearly two years into unified Republican control of the federal government.
The Democratic margin rests on wide leads among traditional pillars of the party's support — Black voters by 70 points, Latino voters by 40, women by 21 and younger adults by 31 — as well as a steep 15-point advantage among independents and an 18-point edge among voters who say they are extremely motivated to vote. CNN notes the sentiments work against the GOP's effort to hold Congress, even as some voters remain skeptical a Democratic win would bring meaningful improvement.
There is a ceiling on what the topline could deliver. A 10-point national margin would represent roughly a 13-point swing from the 2024 House popular vote, but mid-decade redistricting and the large number of competitive races in Republican-friendly territory could limit how many seats it actually flips. The midterms are on November 3.
